Overarching Concept & Probabilities

CONCEPT OF REASONING MODEL: A “Reasoning Move” is defined as a move made by price action to find reason to continue in the opposite direction, & can be visualised when price undergoes weak displacement through liquidity. From a “Reasoning Move”, my Reasoning Model is derived. Throughout all data, a Reasoning Move is initiated only by the 15M timeframe/candle, & aside from initiation liquidity, only 4H, 1H, 30M, & 15M confluences are considered. Confluences refer to liquidity, FVG's, inverse FVG's, & their associated variants.

​

Below data demonstrates the probabilities of specific Reasoning Moves being completed, by an opposing FVG, inverse FVG, or liquidity being reached, utilising market structure, supplementary confluences, & initiation liquidity as variables to distinguish between probabilities. These probabilities form the foundation of further data collection. The top three pages “Treated As Improbable”, “Examples Offset By Further Data”, & “Alternate Displacement” respectively demonstrate the specific configurations that are improbable, reasoning moves that have been offset by further liquidity being swept, & reasoning moves that have encompassed weak displacement occurring more than once. Dates with a comma succeeding them indicate the example has been observed within 2.5 hours of London session open, whereas dates with a “❌” or “👅” succeeding them indicate the example has been observed in the first 30 minutes of London session pre-market or final 30 minutes of pre-market, respectively. Dates observed without any successive symbols are examples observed between the 2.5th and 4th hour of London session, otherwise known as “after markets”.